It's no surprise that Lee County's Estero and Bonita corridors currently are experiencing the area's fastest residential and commercial growth.

After all, three of our region's major infrastructure assets are within a five-mile radius of these areas: Southwest Florida International Airport, Florida Gulf Coast University and, though sometimes overlooked as an essential piece of our infrastructure, Interstate 75.

These assets are providing the engines for growth in south Lee County, but they have their limitations. That, along with environmental concerns, ultimately will determine not if, but how quickly the area from Daniels Parkway in South Fort Myers to Coconut Road near Bonita Springs will develop.

Residential Already Booming

When you examine the nine other state universities in Florida, you can see they are magnets for residential and commercial growth. FGCU will be no different. And Southwest Florida International Airport to the north, with its $363 million expansion plan that will double its size, is likely to have the same effect. As an example, compare the area around Orlando International Airport five years ago to what it is today.

The bottom line: 10 years from now, the 10-mile stretch along I-75 from Daniels to Coconut Road will be almost unrecognizable to what it is today. And much of this change will be fueled by residential growth that is already planned and ready to go.

There are 10 residential communities -- either under development or in the planning stages -- along this I-75 stretch. Some of the biggest are Miromar (2,300 planned units) and U.S. Homes' StoneyBrook (1,300 planned units) east of the highway, and The Brooks by Bonita Bay (5,200 planned units) west of I-75.

All told, the 10 communities will total more than 15,000 residential units. If you factor in the average Lee County household of 2.4 people per unit, that's 36,000 new residents in this area over the next 10 years, in just these 10 communities alone.

What's even more amazing is that additional communities in this area are expected to be announced by year's end, and in 10 years, all these communities are expected to be sold out!

Commercial Growth to Follow

I have always said that commercial growth follows residential development, and this area will be no exception. In fact, major commercial developers are already lining up in anticipation of the building boom. Three out of the four regional mall sites proposed over the last several years fall in this corridor.

This will represent a mall of 1-to-1.2 million square feet. Who are the players? At the southwest Alico/I- 75 interchange is the Maryland-based Rouse Company. On the east side of I-75, just south of Alico Road, in an area commonly called University Village, is the Cleveland-based Jacobs Group. And nearer the coast, just east of U.S. 41 at the Sweetwater Ranch property, is Indianapolis-based Simon Property Group, which currently owns Edison Mall.

These all are major players with well-known national reputations for shopping center development. However, even with our tremendous growth, we can support only one mall in this area. Who will it be? Who will dig ground first?

Stay tuned.

Congested Roads

The only limit to this growth may be what helped spur it in the first place - Interstate 75. Once a free-flowing conveyor of people and cars, it has started to clog, especially in south Lee County, where it has become a commuter road for people avoiding bottlenecks on US 41, the only other main north-south corridor.

While plans are in the works to extend Ben Hill Griffin Parkway to the east of I-75 and Three Oaks Parkway to the west into north-south connectors, these projects may not come soon enough before the state begins looking at this area's growth policies, especially road concurrency. Concurrency, is the method used to measure the level of road service. If the roads fail, then a moratorium is possible. And if clogged roads slow sales and choke off development, you effectively have a self-imposed moratorium.

Will we see relief anytime soon? In the short-term, surrounding road improvements can help. However, until I-75 is six-laned, those are simply stopgap measures. And recent reports from the state suggest I-75 is far behind I-4 and possibly I-95 in funding priorities.

Environmental Concerns

Finally, environmental constraints are another major challenge this area.

The Lee County Comprehensive Plan currently designates a 65,000-acre area just east of I-75 in this corridor as a Groundwater Recharge Area with stricter limits on growth. That's equal to an area the size of Cape Coral, which at build-out would have 350,000 people. And it's my guess that even more development restrictions will follow in this area when the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers complete the Environmental Impact Study (EIS).

Yet, while all this threatens development, I don't believe it will stop it. It will add significant costs to development, however, costs that ultimately will be felt by the consumer.

With all that said, the Estero/Bonita corridor still is poised for tremendous growth and development. Just look at recent projects in the area - Miromar Outlet Mall, Florida Everblades Arena - and you get a taste of what's to come. The residential units are coming. Another mall is coming. Only traffic congestion will slow it.