It has been said that the true essence of business isn't just playing the game, it's staying ahead of it. That very notion is what likely drove hundreds of local business types to the Philharmonic Center last month to hear the experts talk about Southwest Florida's economic future.

The Regional Economic Conference, an annual project of the Chamber of Southwest Florida, hosted a record crowd of 700 ticket-holders. The event featured speakers National Center for Policy Analysis Senior Economist Barry Asmus, NationsBank Chief Economist A. Lynn Reaser, Wadley-Donovan Group Senior Managing Director Dennis Donovan and Florida Office of Tourism, Trade and economic Development Director J. Antonio Villamil. After giving individual presentations, these speakers joined in a panel discussion with Manuel Fernandez, chairman of the board of GartnerGroup, and Al Hoffman, Jr., the CEO of Watermark Communities Inc.

Collectively, the pool of talent tackled some of the region's burning economic questions:

Q: Will this incredible economy continue?

A: Most of the speakers agreed that Southwest Florida will continue to prosper, given the current labor shortage and infrastructure problems don't get worse.

The United States is in its ninth year of economic expansion, Reaser explained. "This is an incredible time of U.S. economic history. [We are in] the longest upswing in the history of this country," she said. And there's no recession on the horizon. "The key to sustaining this growth is to hold down inflation," she said.

Increasing productivity, accompanied by the nation's budget surplus, the strong stock market and the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank will continue to drive a healthy national economy, Reaser predicted. "The Federal Reserve has done a magnificent job of managing this expansion," she said. And, although she feels that the easy money has already been made in the stock market, "we're looking at more moderate gains in the high single digits."

The Florida economy has been excellent as well, Reaser said. The population growth since 1990 is estimated at 40 percent for Collier County and over 20 percent for Lee County. The national average is 16 percent. Southwest Florida has outpaced their counterparts in Southeast Florida, including Palm Beach, Dade and Broward counties.

Unemployment is also much lower in Southwest Florida, 2.7 percent for Lee County and 3.8 percent for Collier County. Reaser predicted that the numbers will "stay at those low levels throughout the coming year." She also cautioned that growth in 2000 will be constrained by that low unemployment rate.

Q: Why has our economy survived so long?

A: Barry Asmus offered his theory as to why America is a beacon of prosperity. With the U.S. being first in biotechnology, commercial banking, manufacturing, corporate technology and even fast food, there has to be a reason no other nation is a close second. And that reason, he said, is that "the U.S. has been at the freedom game longer than anybody."

To continue to be successful, America has to move from a political model to a market model, Asmus said. If the country. continues on a political course, "we're all on the road to serfdom." Privatizing health care, education and other areas now run by the government would be the best thing to do, he said.

Another element driving the global economy is the speed at which work is accomplished. "The printing press made us all readers, Xerox made us all publishers, television made us all viewers and the digital age makes us all producers," Asmus said.

As a result, he said, the world will produce more in the next 25 years than it has produced in the last 2,500 years. "In the 20th Century, we produced a lot of stuff. In the 21st century, we're going to produce lots of the right stuff," he said.

Q: How competitive is Southwest Florida for companies looking to relocate or expand?

A: The answer isn't so clear, according to Dennis Donovan, senior managing director of the Wadley-Donovan Group consulting company.

On the plus side, Southwest Florida does enjoy a quality of life in terms of weather and natural recreation opportunities. The area also has comparatively low business costs, low construction costs, a modest tax burden and few unions.

Labor shortages that are well above national and even state averages, however, are big problems. The situation is an even worse when considering the number of workers needed to keep up the amenities for new residents and tourists. "If the economy isn't strong enough to give these people the kind of services they want," Donovan said, "this area will become a passe place."

Southwest Florida's small technical labor force is especially problematic. Per 1,000 workers, the area averages only 105 technicians, five engineers, two scientists and one computer programmer, compared with national averages of 141 technicians, 14 engineers, three scientists and six computer programmers. Donovan also pointed out that the area has a lower-than average proportion of adult workers with college degrees and that the local workers' compensation costs are well above national averages.

Among other negative forces are the lack of available, ready-to-occupy buildings and slower-than-average wait times for permit approval. Population growth is placing a strain on the roadway systems, making for potential problems with product delivery in the future. And the threat of natural disaster is also greater in the area, meaning more potential down time for the average company.

Donovan also said the area lacks a unified regional effort -- and a significant marketing budget -- to promote itself as the place to be in business. He suggested local counties join forces for a regional approach, using funds to reach more companies on a national scale.

Q: How can we help better educate and train our workforce?

A: Fernandez offered his own story as an example of this problem. When GartnerGroup opened back-office financial operations in Fort Myers, he explained, the company had no problem finding workers, because there were several local companies with similar labor pools. However, when the company decided to expand its sales and marketing operations to the area, it experienced a large dearth of qualified workers. Fernandez said he's unsure if the company will bother expanding in the area.

Hoffman offered a similar frustration in finding a qualified construction workers, especially those with technical expertise. Furthering the problem, he said, is the educational stigma attached to these types of trades. Without a formalized type of educational training program, these workers are often thought of as less social acceptable than professions requiring a bachelor's degree form a 4-year university.

Villamil responded that the state is undergoing a "revolution in economic development," working more with the private sector to provide workforce training reflective of the true needs of business. For example, he offered, the state's Enterprise Florida, a private partnership for Florida's business development, recently received a federal grant to give companies rebates for workforce training.

Q: What about Y2K?

Reaser predicted that Y2K problems will be isolated domestically, although developing countries such as China, Russia and the Ukraine are much less prepared. "We aren't looking at massive breakdowns," she said.

Manuel Fernandez, chairman of the board of high-tech consultant GartnerGroup, agreed. "Y2K will be over on that magical Saturday (Jan. 1, 2000)," he said.

He said the next big technology question will be how to survive in a Web-based economy, where the Internet will affect not only business-to-consumer transactions, but business-to-business transactions, estimated at $1.5 trillion by the years 2002-2003.

"The world is changing," Fernandez offered. "We have to be prepared to change with it."