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Change is Afoot for the Business Technology Section

By: Editorial Staff


What to Expect in 2000

By: Newt Barrett

991 words and picture (use near end)

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.

Yogi Berra

If ever there was a time for predictions, the turn of the Millennium is it. In terms of technology, you might think everything looks pretty obvious at the moment. But some very smart people have made some very big misses.

Here's one prediction you can take to your online bank: Our Business Technology department will be transformed in 2000. Beginning next month, it becomes Putting the Internet to Work.

The Internet as the Ultimate Change Agent

Is the Internet shamelessly hyped? Do many public Dot-Com companies represent a bubble ready to burst? Is it difficult to figure out how to make the Internet work for your organization? You bet! But that doesn't matter. In spite of these and other wretched excesses, the Internet is changing everything. This impact came so quickly that it was missed by some very smart observers even five years ago.

In his excellent 1994 book, The World in 2020, British journalist, Hamish McRae, lays out his thoughts on the direction of the economic and political landscape over a 25-year span. In the realm of technology, he spoke of the PC revolution and the burgeoning era of electronic communication. He wrote, for example, about mail order, where "it has become possible for a new firm, with half a dozen employees and a PC to buy sufficiently accurate mailing lists to be able to launch a range of products aimed at a small niche in the market."

Believe it or not, in The World in 2020, McRae never mentioned the importance, let alone the existence, of the Internet.

As we begin the 2000s, McRae's example of mail order seems rather quaint. Of course, we all receive plenty of catalogues, but today "cheap" and "electronic" lead us in a very different direction - to the Internet. In fact, Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon.com, noted that if the company published a complete catalogue it would require 40 New York City-sized phone books.

Amazon.com, which launched from a garage in 1995, has today a market capitalization exceeding that of Barnes & Noble, Borders, Kmart and J.C. Penney combined. This seems ludicrous on its face. But, for those who compare the phenomenon to the Dutch tulip bulb craze of the 1600s, Evan Schwartz notes in Digital Darwinism, "The web is much more than a mass delusion. Smaller but similar speculative bubbles expanded and popped during the early days of the telegraph in the 1880s, radio in the 1920s, and the biotech business circa 1990." In fact, argues Schwartz,

The Web is more than a new landscape for doing business, more than a digital terrain that leads to brand-new species of companies. The frenetic evolution we are undergoing will forever alter the way all business is conducted almost everywhere by almost everyone.

Does this mean that existing businesses will disappear and that they will be replaced by a new and nimble Internet species? Does it mean the 'Wal-Martization' of the Web? That is, will online giants squash small businesses? Yes, and no. The dream of everyone succeeding as his or her own online publisher or E-storefront is certainly threatened by the likes of Amazon.com, Priceline.com, Yahoo.com and America Online. Hundred million dollar deals lock up precious merchandising space on the top web sites. Billions of dollars of venture capital and IPO funds attract the best and the brightest to a thousand online ventures that are long shots at best.

If things are so out of control, why bother with the Internet? In part, it's because we have no choice. But, more optimistically, even the smallest business can profit through the intelligent use of Internet and web technology. And profit is the key word.

Thousands of small organizations are already selling profitably on the Internet or using the web as a prospecting, customer service or technical support tool. In Southwest Florida, dozens of examples prove that ecommerce isn't just for the Wal-Marts of the world. On the other hand, many other companies may well decide that anything beyond a minimal web presence cannot be cost-justified. But, that doesn't eliminate the urgency to evaluate how the Internet can be put to work in other ways.

In fact, the Internet is changing how every organization should be reengineering its operations. Those moving most rapidly to take advantage of web technology will have a significant competitive advantage. A company need not be selling its products on the Internet to benefit.

The new Staybridge Suites hotel in Naples is a superb example. It's a great value for long-term stays with a friendly staff and great amenities. But these are qualities that other local properties might match. Open only a few months, the Staybridge folks begin with a dramatic competitive advantage: every room has high speed T-1 access. For a one-time fee of $9.95, each guest has unlimited Internet access at speeds that would likely only experience at a corporate headquarters. This required a significant upfront investment so that every room was wired to a local area network that provides Internet access. And, should you forget your laptop, no problem. The hotel has two off-lobby workstations that are also connected to the Internet on the T-1 line.

The value of their innovative approach was reinforced as I chatted with a young business owner from D.C. who was doing his real estate looking at one of the Staybridge workstations. This made all the difference for this young entrepreneur. Will he stay at the hotel when he comes back to Naples? Of course. Will he tell all his business colleagues? You bet.

The bottom line:

We all need to rethink how we run our businesses. Putting the Internet to Work will cover a broad range Internet issues from high level looks at the worldwide web to a review of successful websites to the use of Internet technology as a reengineering tool. Our particular focus will be what's going on in Southwest Florida. Stay tuned.