Predicting Build-Out in Southwest Florida

decorators — will need to find another set of customers.

Most observers feel that once Southwest Florida is

built-out, it will tear itself down, one building at a time, and build all over

again.

“What we will see is redevelopment,” says Jantsch.

And McIntosh, who stands by the redevelopment theory,

explains, “We’ll start to see single family homes in older communities being

bulldozed, the lot scraped.” Two neighborhoods nearly built-out in the 70s in

Naples — The Moorings and Aquilane Shores — are in this stage, he says. Farther

afield, New York’s Manhattan Island has been built out for decades and still

has a thriving building industry.

McIntosh concedes that redevelopment does not happen at the

pace of initial development, but feels the slower rate is mitigated by the

higher price and quality. “A much higher value, at a much higher margin,” he

says. “Who’s been impacted negatively in this process?”

Weeks has some concerns about the workers. “I don’t think

enough redevelopment can happen to employ the same number of people,” he says.

“It’s hard to believe it will happen at the rate of new construction we have

today.” He does not feel that in-fill will do the trick either. “You may even

build four units where there have been two, but that’s still not the same as

new development.”

Thibaut agrees. He says that, before they begin to rebuild,

people will move north to Charlotte County were they will look for new building

opportunities. Rebuilding is too expensive, he says.

On the bright side, property sellers see build-out as being

good for business. “As far as realtors go, there will be a larger demand

because people will want to live here,” says Mardi Moorman, president of the

Naples Area Board of Realtors. She says there will be less new product, but

that the demand will remain high. “So anything that comes on the market will

sell quickly,” she says.

Another benefit Moorman hopes for is higher prices. She uses

Portland, Oregon, as an example. As Portland grew closer and closer to

build-out, she says, prices — and realtors’ commissions — skyrocketed. Moorman

can’t find reasons why a similar effect won’t be felt here.

“As far as the realtors are concerned,” she says, “things

will be booming as always.”

Whether things will always be booming remains to be seen,

but either way some industry professionals are preparing to adapt. David Ellis,

the executive vice-president of the Collier Building Industry Association

(CBIA) says that he feels build-out is not imminent, but his organization is

not sitting still. “As the amount of land available for construction — the

supply — shrinks, the market and industry will adjust to meet those needs,” he

says. “We’ve started a remodelers’ council. When you look into the future,

remodeling is going to happen a lot more.”

In Lee County, Watermeier is getting ready, too. Her office

has started a Smart Growth Task Force, similar, she says, to one in Collier.

“We pulled together the top developers, environmentalists, average citizens,

retirees ... into as diverse a group as we could make it,” she says. “They are

to explore ‘where are we?’ and ‘where are we going?’ Then we are going out into

the community to build a consensus on where we want to go.”

Wherever the market goes, it is surely in for some

significant changes as it matures. Even so, Ellis is losing no sleep. “I have

full confidence that the industry will adapt. It’s not going to happen with

abruptness; it will be evolutionary,” he says, but adds, “It may mean some

folks will have to find work in other areas.”