A Tough Forecast

happen this year.

The big uncertainty is what Brazil actually has, and right

now the intelligence that’s coming back—the Brazilian industry doesn’t publish

numbers—we’re looking at maybe a decrease in the Brazilianstyle="mso-spacerun: yes"> supply. If that is true, then we might see

a movement upward.

Any changes in the vegetable market?

We have seen an increase in acreage of snap beans and

potatoes and over the last five years or so, as some of the tomato acres have

gone out, these other (crops) have come in. They’re less dependent on migrant

labor [because of mechanization], so price doesn’t fluctuate as much but there

seems to be kind of a fairly stable return.

What about sugar cane?

Sugar cane’s been fairly stable. Last year, prices were not

too good; they had some issues to deal with. There’s more of a long-term

concern about what’s going to happen with Cuba. That’s going to affect not just

sugar cane but vegetables as well as citrus.

Do you see other imminent opportunities in agriculture?

We’re dealing with the long-term reality that more people

are going to be moving into the area. We should rethink the way private

landowners use water resources and encourage them to think of ways they could

redirect water into the wetland areas, not only helping the wildlife and

ecology, but also serving as a natural reservoir for water that can be used at other

times during the year.

And if we want to encourage that behavior, we need to think

of a scheme by which we can pay for that, whether it’s water management or

protecting panther habitat.

Retail

Craig timmins is a principal with Grubb & Ellis/IPC, which

conducts commercial real estate market research.

Are companies interested in continuing to grow here?

We’ve got a number of retailers who are either expanding or

wanting to enter the market ... both local and national players.

More so than in other years?

No.

Have they slowed?

The national guys we’re working with have not slowed down.

The locals seemed to pause for the first couple of weeks after Sept. 11, as I

think the whole world did. Now people

have definitely come back and said, ‘OK, let’s keep going forward.’

Any hot spots in Lee or Collier?

The northern part of Collier County is the strongest part of

our market.

Will certain types of retail

continue to grow or become stagnant in 2002?

Transactions for larger retail that could be deferred may be

deferred. If you don’t have to get that refrigerator, you may live with your

older refrigerator for another six months.

The higher price point may suffer a little bit. You aren’t

going to go out for a $30 dinner, but you may go out for a $15 dinner. So there

may be some ratcheting down.

Naples is a very good place to be in this kind of market

because Naples does have a very wealthy population and a lot of their income is

derived from pensions and dividends and interest income, and to some extent

that’s pretty durable.

What are Southwest Florida’s greatest assets?

Our strong population growth is going to help. People who

move need to spend money on all the things you need whenever you move. That

kind of population growth helps dampen the effect of a recession.

Do you expect a developer to move ahead on plans for a

regional mall here in the next year?

It wouldn’t surprise me if one gets announced.

Technology

Dr. walter rodriguez is a professor and chairman of the

departments of computer science, computer information systems, decision

sciences and engineering and the College of Business at Florida Gulf Coast

University. He also directs the Institute for Technological Innovation and

Florida Engineering Education Delivery System and serves on the boards of

several local technology firms.

What kinds of businesses

dominate the tech industry

in Southwest Florida?

In general, consulting, software-developing activities. But

it’s really very diverse. You have your search engines like FindWhat.com, which

is doing very well, all the way to the mom-and-pop shops that fix computers.

What are the biggest challenges that local tech firms face

in 2002?

Since I’m in education I’ll start with that. There’s an

impact in the state of Florida by the expected budget shortfalls. That’s why we

are moving very aggressively to seek out partnerships with enterprise. (In

addition), we could always use better telecommunications infrastructure.

The labor market is a challenge. On one side, companies such

as telecommunications firms are laying off employees, but at other companies

the challenge is to find qualified people, especially in the areas of

information technology, computer science, computer information systems

software, engineering. The university is providing some of those, but there’s

more needed.

We provide retraining programs, certificate programs in the

areas of design and software development, Internet security to retrain

displaced workers. But the cuts make this a challenge; you cannot make new

programs.

Lee and Collier counties use a variety of incentives to

recruit technology firms to Southwest Florida. Do you know of anystyle="mso-spacerun: yes"> private efforts?

Garner Group has formed a venture capital group with funding

from national and global companies. Stellar Business Builders has created a

business incubator.

The beauty of software development is you can do it from any

part of the world, so why not do it from a real nice area? If we can provide

the technology infrastructure, they will come here.