It's About Growth

We are the masters of our destiny, the lords of our future. Oversimplified, perhaps, but that’s

the gist of what growth and land-use experts from around the country think

about Southwest Florida.

Florida is among the fastest-growing states in the nation,

expected to add 5.5 million residents in 20 years. As newcomers head here,

Southwest Florida’s population could jump to more than 1 million by 2010.

We asked three experts—from Washington, D.C. to Portland,

Ore.—who are familiar with Southwest Florida to give a prognosis. In 15 to 20

years, will Southwest Florida be a clot of high-rises and highways, a sprawling

web of gated communities and traffic congestion, or something in between?

Lee County, in particular, has an exciting future, says

Gregg Logan, a managing director of Robert Charles Lesser & Co., an

Atlanta-based market research firm. As the amount of developable land in

Collier County dwindles, residential developers are moving up the coastline and

staking claims inland. He points to U.S. Home’s Heritage Palms near Six Mile

Cypress Slough Preserve and The Bonita Bay Group’s Verandah, planned for

northeast Lee on the Orange River, as master-planned communities typical of

Collier and south Lee that are starting to appear to the north and east.

An influx of residents in master-planned communities in Lee

creates a new set of stakeholders who will support the redevelopment of

downtown Fort Myers. “Naples gets a lot of support from people who enjoy their

golf communities and beachfront condos but want a downtown experience,” Logan

says.

It isn’t just a downtown; it’s a “sense of place” that’s

lacking in Lee, says Rod Park, a councilor for Metro, an elected group that

oversees regional land-use and transportation planning in the Portland, Ore.,

area. When Park visited Southwest Florida even his cab driver, an 18-year

resident, couldn’t identify a “community center” in Fort Myers, he says.

Even worse, in 10 or 15 years, Southwest Florida could be

locked into a development pattern of low-density sprawl. Lack of transportation

alternatives and gated communities add to congestion and sprawl. “I did not see

the opportunity for alternatives for transportation, so everything has to be

car-oriented,” says Park. “I’ve never seen so many gated communities in my

life.

“It appears that your community leaders, your elected

leaders, get together very little in terms of discussing mutual problems,” he

adds.

Logan agrees. “Lee and Collier are at a critical decision

point,” he says. “Hopefully, they won’t make the same mistakes as other places

made when they came to that point.”

What kind of mistakes? For one, establishing no-growth or

slow-growth measures, Logan says, noting how well-intended policies to slow

growth in California resulted in massive sprawl and traffic congestion.

Waterfront regions are the “granddaddies of the problem,” agrees Maureen

McAvey, a senior resident fellow for urban development at the Urban Land

Institute in Washington, D.C.

The Push Inland

The development of communities inland creates the need for

more services and infrastructure. In addition, inland residents demand what

drew them to Southwest Florida in the first place—access to the Gulf. That’s

been a problem in the Florida Panhandle, where much of the waterfront has

become extremely expensive, cloistered in resort communities such as Seaside

and WaterColor.

“If there’s not good planning at the front end so there’s

open space, mixed-use development, commercial development, then the waterfront

itself—which is at such a premium because they’re not inventing any more of

it—simply ends up the purview of those who can afford it,” McAvey says.

It’s critical to decide in advance how each area will

develop and provide transportation accordingly, Park says. Most regions make

the mistake of allowing transportation to drive development rather than

designing transportation to suit the kind of development intended for an area.

A major thoroughfare is built as a bypass, for example, but development pops up

along the new route until it is as choked as other roads.

Well-planned regions have high-density, cluster developments

that encourage community while limiting congestion and directing growth, McAvey

says.

Keeping the Appeal

Southwest Florida must broaden its economic base from

tourism and service businesses to more lucrative industries, Logan says,

echoing a priority of local economic development groups.

The key is to reach out to the numerous business leaders who

have second homes in Southwest Florida. Given appropriate incentives,

infrastructure and support (such as Florida Gulf Coast University), they might

relocate their businesses here, helping to diversify the economy, Logan says.

That has been a trend in Arizona. Many Californians who

bought second homes in Phoenix decided they wanted to live there full time, and

relocated their businesses.

Southwest Florida must identify what draws people to the

area and protect those resources. Park recommends asking: Will people want to

come here to enjoy the amenities as they used to? What are the key things to

protect, and do plans actually protect them?

Area leaders must decide how the region wants to grow and

set plans to do it. Where is growth desirable or undesirable, and what kind of

growth should be emphasized in what areas? Identify places that should remain

rural, areas that should be preserved, and places where higher density and more

urbanization are appropriate, Logan advises.

Says McAvey: “The real challenge is how they want it to be

developed, because the policies and practices put in place now and the

environment they create will have a huge impact on the next 10 to 15 years.”