Mall Brawl

The sites have been the source of debates among local real

estate experts. Some argue that the Jacobs Group's I-75 location has the

advantage as far as access to and from the mall. The traffic impact at the

Simon site off U.S. 41 will be severe, says D'Alessandro. Furthermore, the

majority of regional malls are located along interstate corridors, and for good

reason. "We lean slightly toward thinking the Alico/I-75 location would draw

more of a mass market in the long run," notes Duckworth. "But with the strong

demographic-folks who now live here from Immokalee Road to Daniels Road-the 41

site is awfully attractive."

Schneider says Simon looked at an I-75 site but decided the

interstate is not a retail corridor. "U.S. 41 is the retail spine of Southwest

Florida. It always has been. Most of the market is on the west side of I-75.

There are 81 active residential subdivisions within five miles of our site.

That's pretty phenomenal," he says.

Size-and Income-Matter

Why has Southwest Florida grabbed the attention of these

shopping center giants? The simple answer is that the demographics are finally

reaching the critical mass needed to support a project of this size. The

combined population of the two counties is projected to jump from 700,000 in

2000 to nearly 900,000 in 2010 and more than a million by 2020.

Although the market is still on the small side for a mega

mall, the quality of the demographics may offset the size. If it weren't for

the high incomes of Southwest Florida residents, many large retailers would not

be impressed by the population numbers, says Integra's Duckworth. For upscale

retailers, the south Lee/north Collier market is appealing because it's home to

an affluent population bolstered by tourists who devote a day or two of their

vacation week to shopping.

Simon, for one, likes the numbers. "This market has 700,000

people in two counties and 300,000 part-time residents, plus tourists," says

Schneider. "And it is certainly fast-growing. After Las Vegas it is in the top

two or three growth areas-and it's high-quality growth."

Most local analysts believe the area will have no trouble

absorbing a mega mall-if not now, certainly by the time it opens, estimated to

be no earlier than 2005. Despite lagging sales in most parts of the country

(partly due to layoffs and the effects of 9-11), Southwest Florida's retail

market has fared relatively well. Research by Integra Realty Resources shows that

in the last quarter of 2001, the retail vacancy rate was 6.7 percent in the

area encompassing all of Collier and Bonita Springs in Lee. Anything under 10

percent is considered healthy, says D'Alessandro.

Adding a mall of that size will certainly have some impact.

Edison Mall will be protected by residents from Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres

while Coastland, which is in a smaller and more seasonal market, may have a

more difficult time, D'Alessandro says.

Simon, predictably, does not anticipate a problem at its

Edison property, nor at Coastland. Its site is 15 miles from the two existing

malls and will offer a different tenant mix. "Any significant addition of

retail will have some impact on the market in general," Schneider concedes,

"but no significant negative impact."

"You can't put 1.5 million square feet into the market and

not have some negative impact on existing retailers," notes Stevens. But, he

adds, the effect may be short term because of continuing population growth.

Wait a year, and the area may experience enough growth to sustain both new and

existing retail.

That Southwest Florida will soon have a new regional mall

appears a sure thing. Considering the growth the region will be experiencing in

the next decade, the big question might actually be: In 2010, will there be one

new mall in Southwest Florida, or will there be two?

Florida's Mall Fever

Florida continues to be a strong market for malls. The state

is second only to California in the number of shopping centers. More than 3,500

centers are located here; 54 of those are considered super-regional malls of

800,000 square feet or larger.

From 2001 through 2004, 35 large malls will have opened in

the United States, according to statistics from the International Council of

Shopping Centers. Seven of those will be in Florida.

Besides the state's newest super-regional, Mall at Millenia

in Orlando (which opened in October), other recently built malls in excess of

one million square feet include Dolphin Mall in Miami and International Plaza

in Tampa. Taubman Centers developed all three projects.

Southwest Florida may well be the next region in the state

to see a one-million-plus-square-foot shopping center. The retail projects

being proposed here by Simon and Jacobs would make them among the largest in

the state, just behind two east coast centers: Sawgrass Mills in Sunrise at 2.7

million square feet and Aventura Mall in Miami at 2.1 million square feet.