Leading Question

People in the trenches, namely realtors and developers, are encouraged by what they see in the market of homes of $1 million and up. Some report record-setting performances this year with expectations of more to come.

Like the wealthy baby boomers herding in to buy expensive dwellings, residential real estate "will be in its golden years," at least for the coming decade, says Mike Hughes, vice president and general manager of Naples-based Downing-Frye.

During the past 10 months, 13 percent of homes on the Multiple Listing Service sold for $1 million or more, nearly double from four years ago, Hughes says. "More properties are falling into that range," he says.

The Bonita Bay Group sees the same trend?and is reaping the benefits. At its Mediterra development, for example, the company has sold 120 homes priced $1 million and up through this year's third quarter. "That's equal to or above prior years," says John Gleeson, Bonita Bay regional vice president. "We're optimistic for 2006."

Some experts, however, see a different outlook. "The market has cooled," says Hank Fishkind of Fishkind and Associates, an Orlando economic consulting firm. "We've kind of hit the top."

Fishkind bases his conclusion on studies of real estate closings in various parts of the state. Movement of high-end condos has not increased in six months. Upscale single-family homes are doing a little better, but not much. "Those sales have been down for three months," he says.

Naples real estate broker Ross McIntosh also notices a cooling.

For many months, Southwest Florida sellers of luxury homes would learn what neighborhood homes sold for, jack their asking price up and get it, McIntosh says. Buyers, fearing they would lose out, paid. Nowadays, people are taking more time to shop and buy a home. "The frenzy is over," McIntosh says. "The market is kind of getting back to normal."

?-Phil Borchmann