There is a lot to love about our lifestyle in Southwest Florida — the coastal waterways, the warm climate and, of course, access to great dining, education, entertainment and amenities. It is easy to see why our area has become known as an outstanding place to live, work, play and retire.
Over the years, this has led to surging population growth. Between 2019 and 2022, the five-county region grew more than 7%, and it is expected to grow more than 30% by 2050. As our
population is expected to climb to nearly 2 million people over the next 25 years, our communities need to prepare now for challenges lying ahead. And our biggest challenge will be maintaining a trained, skilled workforce.
Population forecasts show most of our growth will come from people migrating from other states and countries seeking a slice of the Florida lifestyle. Likewise, our retiree population will continue to grow faster than our working age residents.
Based on recent trends, we can expect the continuous arrival of new residents to bring more jobs.
Between 2021 and 2023, our region consistently grew more than 5% in nonfarm jobs, above the area’s historic average of 2.5%. Since then, the region has returned to its historic growth rate. Likewise, Southwest Florida has been closing the wage gap compared to the rest of the state and the nation.
This means most job growth is explained by local conditions, and Southwest Florida is seeing an increase in the concentration of jobs in high-paying industries, such as manufacturing and professional and technical services.
The challenge is that as our population skews older and skilled workers move on to retirement, Southwest Florida needs to be able to reinvigorate the workforce. We have certainly made strides on the percentage of skilled workers in the region, growing from 39% in 2013 to 44.3% in 2022. But there is still a long way to go.
How can we get there? As a society, we need to change how we think about jobs, skills and credentials. This is something we are focused on in higher education.
Built into the mission of Florida Gulf Coast University is a focus on partnering with our regional community, particularly employers, to learn about the job needs of both today and tomorrow. Through these relationships, we are able to complement the curriculum in traditional academic programs with short-term, noncredit learning opportunities that enable students to earn specific industry certifications, micro-credentials and digital badges.
This is a trend nationally in higher education. It allows colleges and universities to provide students with opportunities to add value to their first jobs right away, proving that they have learned the skills necessary to find career success. With the growth of job opportunities in the area, graduates are more likely to stay local after graduation.
This is the basis for additional and better credentials, and we have work to do.
First, we need to continue to improve the region’s high school graduation rate, which is influenced by experiences students have at the beginning of their schooling. Studies show that students who are well-prepared for kindergarten and third-grade benchmarks are more likely to stay on track throughout
their education.
Second, we need to engage those high school graduates in ongoing learning opportunities locally at two-year, four-year or technical training institutions.
Finally, we need to help those students complete their programs on time and connect them to the Southwest Florida workforce.
These steps will help Southwest Florida retain a well-trained and skilled workforce that is responsive to the population growth our region is seeing now and expects in the future.
Aysegul Timur is President of Florida Gulf Coast University, and Amir B. Ferreira Neto is Director of Regional Economic Research Institute at FGCU.
