Charlotte County’s population increased 11% during a 20-month span from June 2023 to February 2025. Professional planner David Farmer, CEO of county-contracted Metro Forecasting Models, offered solutions to county commissioners April 22 about how to manage the county’s historic growth that has ranged from 1.3% to 2.8% annually since 1990.
Since June 2023, the county added 10,994 new housing units and forecasted an increase of approximately 17,000 more housing units between 2025 and 2030. In response, Farmer contended less residential development is needed in favor of more commercial and industrial development to better serve residents.
Graphs and charts illustrated how Charlotte County lags behind Lee and Collier counties in the amount of commercial and industrial square footage. Although Collier’s industrial supply is similar to Charlotte’s, Collier’s size and number of amenities, such as hotels, stores and shops, an opera and philharmonic, make up for its lack of industrial square footage, Farmer said.
In 10 months, Charlotte County added 5,000 housing units and the population grew by 12,000 people.
The population was 201,000 in 2023, climbed to 212,000 in 2024 and was 224,147 in February 2025, nearly 30,000 more people than the last census showed.
The county’s growth is happening so quickly that commercial developers “have not been able to understand the pent-up demand that’s here,” Farmer said, adding the county currently needs one more shopping center and two more by 2030.
Farmer said commercial real estate brokers must spread the word that Charlotte County is growing, and commercial developers are needed.
A Publix is planned for a mall along State Road 776 in Port Charlotte, serving West Port residents living in the county’s biggest growth area.
Burnt Store Road communities will need a neighborhood shopping center by 2030 and a commercial shopping center by 2040. A 40-acre parcel along Burnt Store Road is ideal for a shopping center that also would serve northern Lee County, Farmer said.
There is property along the Burnt Store Corridor that could be commercially developed, but the commercial sector has been hesitant to “expand its web,” Commissioner Chris Constance told Farmer.
“It’s not your responsibility to make development happen, but it’s your responsibility to make sure there’s enough land,” Farmer said, predicting new stores that crop up in that area will have success from Day 1.
Farmer also mentioned the county’s unprecedented growth is impacting the level of service of existing facilities, accelerating the need to plan for new facilities, including fire stations, parks and libraries.
To answer the call for more industrial land, Farmer suggested the county rezone agricultural land along Interstate 75 that carries an assessment of $250 per acre. Conversely, industrial land in the county is assessed at $278,951 per acre.
He said industries have a multiplier effect, as one job in durable manufacturing leads to 7.44 indirect jobs, for example.
Industrial landowners should consider applying for a portion to be rezoned for a planned development of multifamily units, allowing workers to live close to work and decrease road congestion, Farmer said.
“It’s critical to reserve land now. Otherwise it will get gobbled up by residential,” he said.
“[The board] will have to do some pivoting because we’re being assaulted,” Constance said, adding that the county is understaffed having to deal with growth in addition to the effects of recent hurricanes.
Farmer will provide the BOCC with an update in November.
