With just 53 days before hurricane season starts June 1, Charlotte County commissioners looked ahead at an April 9 meeting. Commissioner Chris Constance floated the idea of creating a hurricane reserve fund with unused money from the county’s hurricane recovery fund.
Constance said the county auditors recently concluded their financial audit.
“We set aside a million and a half dollars for hurricane recovery, and it looks like we only used about a half a million of it,” he said. “So, we’re going to be able to bring that half million back into reserves, but we may actually create a hurricane or storm-related fund along with the other things that we’re doing.”
Charlotte County, like other areas of Southwest Florida, endured severe damage from Hurricane Ian on September 28, 2022. Then Hurricane Idalia slammed the region, causing flooding in late August 2023.
Idalia was the most significant hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center. It made landfall at Category 3 intensity in the Big Bend region of Florida, causing $3.6 billion in damage and resulting in eight direct fatalities.
The National Hurricane Center is predicting an active hurricane season. Researchers from Colorado State University on April 4 predicted there will be 11 hurricanes, with five becoming major Category 3-5 storms with winds of 111 mph or greater.
The average for hurricanes per season from 1991 to 2020 was 7.2, and the highest prediction issued previously was 9.
CSU’s forecast also predicts there will be 23 named storms, exceeding the average of 14.4. This is the highest prediction for hurricanes its team has issued in its April outlook.
The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season from 1991 to 2020. By comparison, 2023’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season.
They based their predictions on El Nino, which is expected to transition to La Nina this summer, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions and warmer than normal sea temperatures.
Warmer ocean waters fuel and strengthen tropical storms and hurricanes.
Meanwhile, there are still Charlotte County and Southwest Florida residents and property owners making repairs and rebuilding after the last two hurricanes.
Some insurance companies still haven’t settled claims, and in less than two months, hurricane season starts again and runs until Nov. 30.
New this year for hurricane watches
The National Hurricane Center, which traditionally issued U.S. tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings three days out, now will offer forecasts four days out.
Beginning in 2024, NHC will issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. Changes to watches and warnings will be reflected in the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory, and coastal tropical wind watches and warnings will be reflected on cone graphics issued with each regular or intermediate Public Advisory.
So far, the 2024 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020, CSU researchers said.
“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report.
“This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook.”
