Collier home sales surge 21% amid uncertain tourist season

September — a usually sluggish sales month for residential real estate — saw pending and closed sales surge in Collier County. The Naples Board of Realtors reported a 21.1% year-over-year jump in sales activity, clocking a total 753 pending sales throughout the month. That’s up from 622 in September 2024. 

“I’m busy, but not COVID busy,” Realtor Shannon Lefevre of John R. Wood Properties said. “But there was a point in September when I was COVID busy.” 

Rounding quarter four and entering into the new year, agents and sellers are anticipating the return of the yearly snowbird market jump. But according to area experts, a continuing market correction, stubborn sellers and shrinking supply could curtail pending and closed contract numbers from staying at record highs.  

Post-pandemic correction continues 

Naples Realtor Edward DiMarco of Realty Hub said sellers shouldn’t necessarily count on the coming snowbird season — starting in January and peaking from March to May — to redeem their hopes of selling. 

“Every year we have a seasonal adjustment and a slowdown. This year, we’ve had a much greater than average downward adjustment. It’s very significant because in late 2021, we were at one month or less of inventory.” 

As of September, 7.1 months of inventory remain, down from 13.1 months in January 2025, according to NABOR’s September market report. DiMarco pointed out an increasing gap between buyer and seller expectations, fueling frustrations. He’s also seeing more expired and terminated listings than years prior. 

“What we’re seeing now is a mixed bag. Sellers really feel like they’re having a hard time coping with missing the peak of the market, while buyers are saying, ‘Maybe I’ll be better off if I just wait three or six months.’” 

Molly and Matt Lane, senior vice presidents and general managers of William Raveis Real Estate, said affordability and financing remain hurdles for buyers as median home prices are down year-over-year, but still far above pre-pandemic levels. 

“Brokers are reporting that many luxury owners ‘don’t need to sell’ and resist price adjustments,” Molly Lane said. “This overpricing or ‘fishing’ is the biggest problem.” 

Canceled docusigns and longer listings 

Despite the ball being mostly in buyers’ courts, an October Redfin report shows that homebuyers are canceling home-purchase agreements at record rates not seen since 2017, when prices jumped nationwide under tighter inventory. 

The average days on market in Collier County also rose to 86 in October, a statistic the local market hasn’t seen since August 2013, when the post-2008 correction was still underway.  

“Holding costs and return-on-investment erosion are real, and agents are estimating thousands per month in carrying costs,” Lane said regarding luxury properties that are failing to move. 

To list or not to list? To buy, or to hold cash? 

“Sellers are better off listing sooner than later. If you’re a buyer, you’re better off showing patience and getting a really good deal,” DiMarco said. 

Only time will tell if flexible sellers will continue to fuel a hot market.  

Lane noted that “shadow inventory” — homes that exited the market earlier in the year — should return for peak selling months, adding to selection for buyers.  

“The season will likely outperform last year, but fall short of the record-breaking 2021–22 boom years,” Lane added. “Sellers who respond to market signals will succeed.”